Turning the Corner
Alfred Lam, CFA, Senior Vice-President and Chief Investment Officer
Marchello Holditch, CFA, CAIA, Vice-President and Portfolio Manager CI Multi-Asset Management
Christmas is almost upon us, which means we will soon close the book on 2020. It was a tough year for everyone as the COVID-19 pandemic drastically changed our lifestyles. Thankfully, humans are creative and adaptive, and we were able to overcome many challenges. As we write this, Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE have announced a vaccine candidate that is 90% effective in clinical trials. They expect to seek approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) shortly and produce 50 million doses in 2020 and up to 1.3 billion doses in 2021. Since each person will require two doses, about 675 million people could potentially be immunized by the end of 2021. Canadians will have access to this vaccine as our government pre-ordered 20 million doses from Pfizer in the early stage of development, but it will take time for the majority of the population to be vaccinated as orders are met. Keep in mind, even if you don’t receive the vaccine right away, your risk of contracting the virus will still be lower as others do. Also good news is other companies, notably Moderna Inc. and AstraZeneca PLC, are seeing progress with their vaccines and have started reporting clinical trial results, meaning the world is not limited to Pfizer’s supply. It’s possible that we could return to “normal” by late next year.
Reflecting on the markets and economy
There is no doubt our national income has declined due to disruptions to our manufacturing and service sectors. Central banks and governments around the world have acted aggressively to combat slower economic activity by lowering interest rates (to effectively zero), increasing money supply and providing direct subsidies. This supported policymakers’ general preference for lower volatility, propping asset markets and creating a positive backdrop for investing. In the third quarter, some students returned to school and our economy partially re-opened. We also had significant improvements in unemployment rates and national income, both better than originally anticipated.
There were dramatic moves in stock markets throughout the year; volatility spiked in March and equities fell precipitously. Those who stuck to their plan and stayed invested through the drawdown were rewarded with an equally sharp bounce back. Initially, investors favoured technology companies as our social life was replaced by cyber life. The so-called “new economy” companies like Amazon.com Inc. and Facebook Inc. significantly outperformed “old economy” companies like General Electric Co. and Exxon Mobil Corp. With a glimpse of hope we could return to normal in 2021 with a vaccine, investors are now paying up for sectors that were hit hardest by the pandemic, such as airlines and oil producers. We continue to see investors rushing in and out of trends without paying much attention to quality and valuations. That unfortunately is the side effect of lax monetary policies.
Where are we going?
We expect market leadership is changing to favour the laggards. Geographically, Europe, Asia and Canada are attractive. Amongst sectors, we believe there is value in energy, industrials, financials and real estate. We are not sure how durable the current rotation to “old economy” stocks is, but their valuations are significantly better than their peers. We missed some of the trend to “buy technology companies at any price” earlier this year, but we are making up for it with the current surge in value sectors. In our view, investing is like a marathon; it’s not about how fast or slow you complete a single leg, but how you perform over the entire race. We believe our investment process, which focuses on balanced exposure to sectors and styles, is the best strategy to get our clients to the finish line.
Combined top 15 equity holdings as of October 31, 2020 of a representative balanced* Private Client Managed Portfolio with alpha-style equity exposure:
1. Amazon.com Inc.
2. Microsoft Corp.
3. AltaGas Ltd.
4. Visa Inc.
5. Lowe’s Companies Inc.
6. Canadian Tire Corporation Ltd.
7. E-L Financial Corporation Ltd.
8. Brookfield Asset Management Inc.
9. CGI Inc.
10. SPDR Gold Shares
11. iA Financial Corp.
12. Royal Bank of Canada
13. Prologis Inc.
14. Starbucks Corp.
15. Toronto-Dominion Bank
Combined top 15 equity holdings as of October 31, 2020 of a representative balanced* Private Client Managed Portfolio with value-style equity exposure:
1. Microsoft Corp.
2. Royal Bank of Canada
3. Alphabet Inc.
4. Brookfield Asset Management Inc.
5. SPDR Gold Shares
6. Visa Inc.
7. BCE Inc.
8. Enbridge Inc.
9. Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp.
10. Constellation Software Inc.
11. Facebook Inc.
12. Canadian Tire Corporation Ltd.
13. Thomson Reuters Corp.
14. Prologis Inc.
15. Booking Holdings Inc.
Combined top 15 equity holdings as of October 31, 2020 of a representative balanced* Private Client Managed Portfolio with growth-style equity exposure:
1. Power Corporation of Canada
2. Empire Company Ltd.
3. Apple Inc.
4. Amazon.com, Inc.
5. Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd.
6. Microsoft Corp.
7. Manulife Financial Corp.
8. Enbridge Inc.
9. Fortis Inc.
10. Franco-Nevada Corp.
11. Imperial Brands PLC
12. McKesson Corp.
13. Anthem Inc.
14. SPDR Gold Shares
15. TC Energy Corp.
*Approximately 33% fixed-income, 10% enhanced income, 49% equities, and 7% global real estate.
To see the top 15 holdings of the individual pools or the equity alpha mandates, please contact us.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Pfizer Inc., and CI Multi-Asset Management as at November 11, 2020.
This document is intended solely for information purposes. It is not a sales prospectus, nor should it be construed as an offer or an invitation to take part in an offer. This report may contain forward-looking statements about one or more pools, future performance, strategies or prospects, and possible future fund action. These statements reflect the portfolio managers’ current beliefs and are based on information currently available to them. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. We caution you not to place undue reliance on these statements as a number of factors could cause actual events or results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statement, including economic, political and market changes and other developments. United Pools are managed by CI Investments Inc. CI Private Counsel LP is an affiliate of CI Investments Inc. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses may all be associated with investments in pools and the use of the Asset Management Service. Any performance data shown assumes reinvestment of all distributions or dividends and does not take into account sales, redemption or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns. Pools are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. Please read the fund prospectus and consult your advisor before investing. Assante Private Client and the Assante Private Client design are trademarks of CI Investments Inc. CI Multi-Asset Management is a division of CI Investments Inc. This report may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, in any manner whatsoever, without prior written permission of CI Private Counsel LP. 2020 All rights reserved.
